O3237: Do State Gun Laws Affect Pediatric Mass Shootings? A 2009 - 2020 Year Analysis

Background: In the United States, firearm related injuries have overtaken motor vehicle crashes to become the leading cause of death amongst children. A variety of legislation has been proposed, yet there remains a need for research to demonstrate effective mass shooting firearm policy, especially regarding children. We hypothesize that states with more stringent laws had fewer mass shooting associated pediatric deaths than states with less stringent firearm laws.

Methods: We evaluated the Everytown for Gun Safety database from 2009 to 2020 for shootings with at least 4 recorded fatalities where 1 or more of the included fatalities was an individual under the age of 21. We categorized gun prevention laws into 10 groupings involving the following: assault rifle bans (Assault), large capacity magazine bans (Magazine), permit requirements (Permit), extreme risk protection (gvrolawenforcement), universal background checks (Universal), concealed carry discretionary laws (May Issue), gun possession (Possession), violent misdemeanor history (Violent), pediatric population (PEDS), and child access barriers (CAP). After controlling for demographic factors, we used logistic regression and a zero-inflated negative binomial model to analyze the relationship between laws and mass shootings.

Results: We identified 131 pediatric mass shootings from 2009-2020. Laws banning the sale of large capacity magazines were the only laws significantly associated with a reduction in child deaths (OR = 0.09 [95% CI 0.02, 0.47; p < 0.05]). Laws involving restriction of firearms around children (PEDS) were the most commonly found legislation, but failed to show significance in preventing mass shootings or preventing child deaths (p > 0.05). The next highest utilized laws were extreme risk protection laws and universal background checks, yet neither was found to have significance (p > 0. 05) (Figure 1).

Conclusion: Of the parameters we evaluated, laws restricting the sale of large capacity magazines were associated with the greatest reduction of pediatric deaths in mass shootings. Our work is one of the first to analyze how laws impact pediatric mass shootings. Despite a relatively low adoption in the United States, we show how large capacity magazine bans have the potential to prevent pediatric deaths secondary to mass shootings. This study was only limited to the effects on pediatric mass shootings and should not be interpreted to be generalizable to all pediatric or adult firearm related deaths.