P3.L227: An Investigation of the Spatial Patterning of the Shootings of Juveniles in Philadelphia

Background: This study examines the spatial patterning of the shootings of juvenile victims in Philadelphia by considering the potential geographic links of those incidents with recreation sites and schools. Shootings involving juvenile victims continue to be a pervasive public health issue in Philadelphia and this study seeks to extend what is known on this topic to include the spatial relationships between such incidents and public facilities, and also consider how factors such as heat and socioeconomic status might condition those geographic associations.

Methods: We analyzed multiple datasets of Philadelphia in our study, including a dataset of the location of 879 shootings involving juvenile victims, spatial data representing the locations of recreation facilities, the locations of schools, heat islands representing the relative heat level in the city, and several others. Our analytic plan included multiple spatial statistical analyses and the estimation of multilevel regression models.

Results: The results show that the shootings of juvenile victims are spatially correlated with the locations of recreation sites and schools. Further, there is evidence that those spatial relationships are conditioned by the relative degree of heat in the city. We also show that the extent of the injuries suffered in the shootings and the victim characteristics are also spatially-dependent.

Conclusion: The findings of this study serve to build upon the burgeoning literature on the spatial patterns of shootings, and does so in a way that has important implications for parents, children, and municipal policymakers. By linking the shootings of juvenile victims with the locations of particular types of facilities, and showing that those relationships are moderated by the relative level of heat in a city, we believe that our findings can be considered by families and city stakeholders to determine where facilities are built, the degree to which they offer services for children, and when those services should be offered and emphasized.